Process Tracing as a Small n Method for Evaluating the Impact of Outcomes-Based Contracts

Abstract

In this presentation, I share findings from a working paper in which I apply Process Tracing as a novel ‘Small n’ method for evaluating Outcomes-Based Contracts such as Social Impact Bonds. Focusing on the case of the Greater Manchester Homes Partnership (GM Homes), I ask: In what ways, and through which mechanisms, did GM Homes produce systems-level effects? By taking a Process Tracing approach, the evaluation is able to account for the complexity of the GM Homes program, which evolved over time and was delivered in a system where many factors contributed to outcomes that were achieved. Through this case study, I seek to demonstrate how ‘Small n’ methods may be useful for evaluating future Outcomes-Based Contracts - or other innovative policy tools - by offering new evidence-based insights without relying on large sample sizes, counterfactuals, or statistical controls.